🇸🇪 Svenska · 🇬🇧 English · 🇪🇸 Español

AI-generated market briefing from 28 September 2026. It reflects information available at the time and has not been updated retrospectively.

1. Oil above $107 pressures equities and bonds

Brent rose to around $107 a barrel on Monday morning after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for an agreement on Hormuz. Asian markets were mostly lower and US futures fell, while bond yields climbed on renewed inflation worries. Source: Reuters

Why it matters: This is the clearest signal ahead of the Stockholm open. Higher oil and higher yields are especially difficult for highly valued shares. For OMXS30, I would watch Brent, the US 10-year yield and Nasdaq futures together.

2. An unexpectedly positive signal from Hormuz

Despite the diplomatic deadlock, exports by the main Middle Eastern oil producers recovered to about 12.8 million barrels a day in September, their highest since the Iran war began in February. Saudi Arabia exported about 5.4 million barrels a day, and traffic through Hormuz also increased, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. Source: Reuters

Why it matters: This could limit the rise in oil even if the geopolitical situation remains poor. If export volumes continue improving, part of the oil-price reaction may reflect a risk premium rather than an actual physical shortage.

3. Nvidia may get a new opening in China

China is reportedly considering allowing Alibaba and ByteDance to buy a new advanced Nvidia processor. Beijing has previously tried to direct demand towards domestic AI chips, while US export rules restrict which Nvidia products can be sold in China. Source: Reuters

Why it matters: This could move Nvidia when the US market opens. More broadly, China appears to be balancing support for its own semiconductor industry with the need to keep its AI companies from falling behind because of weaker hardware.

4. AI safety reaches the White House

Trump confirmed a meeting with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei after Amodei called for slower AI development on safety grounds. Trump said he did not want to slow development and dismissed fears of AI running amok. Bill Gates has also called for AI safeguards in legislation. Source: Reuters

Why it matters: A dispute within the AI industry is becoming political at the highest level: accelerate to compete with China, or slow down to manage safety risks. The US choice could affect OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia and the wider AI investment cycle.

5. Gold tumbles despite geopolitical anxiety

Gold fell more than 2% to around $4,198 an ounce in morning trading, its biggest daily decline since early September. Paradoxically, higher oil is part of the explanation: it adds to inflation fears and expectations of further Fed rate increases, putting pressure on bonds and gold. Source: Reuters

Why it matters: Markets are trading more on interest rates than geopolitical fear. Gold’s fall as Middle Eastern risks rise shows the strength of the rate effect—and reinforces the case for following bond yields when assessing equities this week.