Signal & Brus

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I was sceptical about Hacksaw when I reviewed the company earlier. After today’s sudden sale, the share became considerably better value in my view. That is why I bought a small position.

The earlier analysis showed a company with impressive profitability and a strong ability to generate cash. But there were questions: how long will the games remain popular, how strong is the competitive advantage, and what happens if taxes or gambling regulations change? Those questions remain. A lower price does not make them unimportant, but it changes what I am willing to pay for the risk.

Today’s share-price plunge followed Hacksaw’s preliminary third-quarter update. Revenue is expected to increase by around 11–12 per cent compared with the same quarter last year. That is a clear slowdown from second-quarter growth of 31 per cent. The company cites both a weaker market environment and weaker game performance than in recent quarters.

This is a deterioration that the market has reason to react to. At the same time, adjusted operating profit is expected to increase by about 14–16 per cent and the operating margin to remain around 83 per cent. The company is therefore still growing and maintaining very high profitability. Its long-term financial targets are also unchanged.

Even so, the share fell about 30 per cent during the morning, according to Nyhetsbyrån Direkt’s reporting. My assessment is that the reaction was too severe. The market may, of course, be right that slower growth will persist. But I believe disappointment has pushed the price down more than the deterioration justifies.

I do not expect the entire fall to be recovered. My expectation is that perhaps a quarter, or even half, of the decline could be regained once the initial reaction subsides. I mean recovering part of the decline in kronor—not that the share must rise by 25 or 50 per cent from my purchase price.

That is why I bought a little. It is a limited purchase with a concrete rationale: continued high profitability, a sharply lower price and the possibility of a rebound. If weaker game performance proves to be the start of a more lasting problem, my assessment may be wrong.

In a few weeks, we will know more. The full third-quarter report is expected on 3 November and should provide a clearer picture. It will then also be easier to judge whether the purchase was wise—even though a short-term rise in the share price alone would not prove that the long-term analysis holds.

Today I saw a buying opportunity in what others saw as a reason to sell. Reality will determine whether it was a good investment.

I own shares in Hacksaw following a purchase on 12 October 2026. This text describes my own decision and assessment. The price movement refers to morning trading, not the day’s closing price.

This translation was prepared with AI assistance. The original featured illustration was AI-generated.